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Donald Trump has ordered a probe into dumping in the US lumber market, setting the stage for the industry to join the widening basket of commodities targeted by Washington’s global trade war.
The president on Saturday directed the Department of Commerce to investigate whether imports of lumber and wood products were undermining domestic loggers in a way that posed a risk to US national security, days after ordering a similar review of the copper industry.
If the investigation finds evidence of dumping, the president can impose retaliatory measures including quotas and tariffs. Canada, by far the biggest source of US lumber imports, would be hardest hit.
“Clearly, something is going on here. We know that there’s massive subsidies with these exporters who are taking advantage of our market,” said a White House official ahead of the order.
“But it’s up to [Commerce] Secretary Howard Lutnick to investigate this and come back to the president with a report.”
While Canadian lumber imports are already subject to tariffs of 14.5 per cent, the announcement marks the first formal step towards dragging the industry into Trump’s global trade war. Any new tariffs would be in addition to the pre-existing Canadian levies.
It comes on the eve of sweeping 25 per cent tariffs set to be introduced on Canada and Mexico next week, plus a further 10 per cent duty on Chinese imports as Trump ratchets up the pressure on US trading partners.
The president has also sought to target specific industries where he argues imports are undermining domestic industry. He is set to impose 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from March 12, following a similar probe into that sector during his first term.
On Tuesday he announced an investigation into imports of copper, sparking fears that the metal would be the next sector slapped with tariffs.
The US has had a long-running feud with Canada over lumber imports. It imported about 34mn cubic feet of softwood lumber in 2023. The vast majority of that — over 28mn cu ft — came from Canada. The next biggest, Germany and Sweden, shipped less than 3.5mn cu ft combined.
Forestry is big business for Canada. In 2022, the sector contributed C$33.4bn to real GDP, or about 1.2 per cent. In the same year Canada’s forest product exports were valued at C$45.6bn, with the majority destined for the US, according to government data.
British Columbia province, where there is a high concentration of Canada’s forestry industry, as well as companies, have spent decades in the courts fighting US levies and anti-dumping duties.
In 2016 the US lumber industry launched the most recent round of litigation, urging the commerce department to act as “Canadian lumber is unfairly subsidised and dumped into the US market,” according to a statement from the BC government.
The dispute hinges on the Canadian forestry industry’s practice of sourcing wood from Crown land, or parks run by the provinces, so production and administration costs are lower than for US forestry companies who rely on private land.
Since becoming president, Trump has repeatedly raised the issue and threatened tariffs on wood imports.
Derek Nighbor, president of the Forest Products Association of Canada, said any increase in tariffs on lumber would hurt forest sector employees on both sides of the border, and on American families seeking affordable housing.
“We should be focused on strengthening our competitive advantages, building more affordable housing, working together to address worsening wildfire risks, and bringing more North American wood to the world,” he said in a statement last month.
But Andrew Miller, owner of Stimson Lumber and the chair of the US Lumber Coalition, said: “Canada’s unfair trade comes at the direct expense of US companies and workers.”
