Will Hill
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
And then there were four!
The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff is down to the semifinals, with four teams left and just three more college football games remaining.
The first eight games — outside of an exciting finish between Texas and Arizona State — did not provide much in terms of entertainment through the first two rounds. Interestingly, the top four seeds — all four teams that earned a first-round bye — were eliminated in their first games.
Also of note, none of the teams that earned that first-round bye were favored in any of their matchups. That’s further proof that the process of seeding needs to be re-evaluated going forward.
But for now, let’s enjoy college football for the final few times until Week 0 later this year.
No. 7 Notre Dame (-1.5, 45.5) vs. No. 6 Penn State
Both teams arrive in the semifinals relatively unscathed.
Notre Dame dispatched both Indiana and Georgia by double digits, while Penn State defeated SMU and Boise State by a combined 52 points.
Something to monitor in this one: Penn State hasn’t played since Dec. 31. Meanwhile Notre Dame played two days later on Jan. 2 against an ultra-physical Georgia team.
I like the Under more than anything else here, as these teams have more in common than just their paths. Both teams have very stout defenses, while both offenses struggle to create big plays.
Notre Dame star running back Jeremiyah Love is banged up (knee), making things even more challenging offensively for the Irish. Beating Georgia was a signature win for the program and a huge step toward shaking its reputation for not being able to beat elite teams. However, the Irish advanced past Georgia with only 244 yards of total offense, with an average of just four yards per play.
These squads have combined to play four Unders so far in the playoffs, and I think another low-scoring game is on tap.
PICK: Under 45.5 points scored by both teams combined
Will Ohio State’s defense stop Quinn Ewers and the Longhorns?
No. 8 Ohio State (-6, 53.5) vs. No. 5 Texas
A couple of weeks ago, this line would have been pretty much a coin flip. Now, Ohio State is laying 6 points.
Certainly the line has moved too much — or has it?
If you’ve watched the Buckeyes since their embarrassing upset loss to Michigan, it is simply terrifying to bet against them right now.
They buried popular underdog pick Tennessee 42-17 in the first round, then beat previously unbeaten Oregon 41-21. That final score, by the way, doesn’t accurately represent just how lopsided that game actually was. The Buckeyes were up 31-0 just six minutes into the second quarter against Oregon, a performance that now has the Buckeyes the clear favorite to win the national title.
Texas is talented, but it gave up more than 400 yards and more than six yards per play in a home game against Clemson, and it needed to convert a fourth-and-13 in overtime to survive against the Sun Devils.
Maybe I’m being prisoner of the moment, but Ohio State looks simply dominant right now, and it winning this game by a touchdown or more is where I’m putting my money.
Pick: Ohio State (-6) to win by more than 6 points
Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.
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